TL;DR
- Bitcoin and Ether traders are placing aggressive bullish bets, ignoring Tuesday’s upcoming U.S. inflation report.
- BTC recently broke past $121,000, while ETH rose to $3,050, with strong open interest on decentralized and centralized options platforms.
- 20% of Derive’s BTC options are concentrated at the $130K strike, while 45% of ETH positions target $3,400.
- Analysts say fiscal expansion, weak USD, and global liquidity are now stronger price drivers than interest rate speculation.
- Trump’s administration has declared this week “Crypto Week”, expecting legislative momentum in pro-crypto bills.
Bitcoin Hits New Highs Amid Rising Option Bets
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are on a bullish tear, as investors continue to place significant bets across both on-chain and centralized options markets. Market participants appear unconcerned by the July 16 U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which traditionally sways macro sentiment.
BTC crossed $121,000, while ETH traded around $3,050, both seeing notable option open interest suggesting confidence in continued upward price movement. According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has gained nearly 30% year-to-date and 13% in July alone.
On-Chain Signals: Derive Shows Growing Conviction
On Derive, a decentralized options platform, a large share of open interest signals bullish conviction:
- 20% of BTC open interest for the September 26 expiry is placed at the $130,000 call option, signaling expectations of continued price escalation.
- 45% of ETH open interest for the July 18 expiry is at the $3,400 strike, which also accounts for 16% of weekend trading volume.
Nick Forster, Derive’s founder, said:
“We’re seeing growing directional conviction in ETH, even with subdued volatility. The market is leaning into a breakout.”
Centralized Markets Align with Bullish Outlook
On centralized exchange Deribit, call options for BTC and ETH continue to outprice puts across all timeframes, reinforcing sentiment that crypto’s rally is not short-lived. Traders appear more focused on mid- to long-term price discovery than on short-term inflation risks.
BTC & ETH Option Market Highlights
| Metric | BTC | ETH |
| Current Price | $121,000+ | $3,050+ |
| Key Strike Price (High OI) | $130,000 (Sept 26) | $3,400 (July 18) |
| % of Open Interest at Key Strike | 20% | 45% |
| YTD Gains | ~30% | ~25% |
| July Gains | 13% | 9% |
Traders Shrug Off Inflation as “Irrelevant”
The upcoming CPI report is expected to show 2.6% annualized growth, up from 2.4% in May, according to FactSet. But analysts and traders suggest that macroeconomic indicators are no longer primary catalysts for BTC and ETH.
According to the founders of LondonCryptoClub, today’s rally is driven by fiscal dominance, increased global money supply, and continued USD weakness—not expectations for Fed rate cuts.
They said:
“We’re in a Goldilocks environment—slowing U.S. economy, manageable inflation, and an expansionary fiscal regime.”
Trump’s Tax Bill, Fiscal Dominance Reshape Crypto Macro View
A new tax bill passed by the Trump administration is projected to add over $3 trillion to national debt. Combined with deficit spending and a weakened dollar, the environment is becoming increasingly favorable for risk assets like crypto.
Alexander Blume, CEO of Two Prime, noted:
“Bitcoin is decoupling from macro indicators. As the Fed appears more political, CPI data will matter less to crypto’s trajectory.”
“Crypto Week” Brings Political Tailwinds
The Trump administration has labeled this week “Crypto Week,” with Congress expected to debate pro-crypto legislation, including:
- The Genius Act
- The Clarity Act
- The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act
Progress on these fronts is expected to further support BTC and ETH prices, especially among institutional participants and corporate treasuries.
Conclusion: Markets Shift from Rates to Fiscal Risk
The narrative driving the crypto market is shifting. Instead of watching the Fed’s every move, traders are now betting on monetary debasement, regulatory clarity, and corporate adoption.This week’s CPI numbers may provide insight into consumer prices, but in the eyes of crypto investors, the real price drivers are structural, not seasonal. With Bitcoin leading the charge above $121K, and Ethereum building strength around $3,050, the next wave of crypto momentum may be driven less by central banks—and more by fiscal policy, legislative tailwinds, and decentralized conviction.
