TL;DR
- Bitcoin continues consolidating above $100K, despite rising institutional interest and ETF inflows.
- Analyst Checkmate debunks market manipulation claims, pointing instead to long-term holder (LTH) selling as the key reason for stalled momentum.
- On-chain data shows revived supply from holders owning BTC for 3–10+ years.
- This consistent selling aligns with normal bull market behavior and limits upside breakouts.
Bitcoin Remains Above $100K — But Can’t Break New Highs
Since May, Bitcoin has held its footing above the $100,000 level, with just a brief dip below this psychological threshold on June 22, triggered by geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran over a weekend.
However, such weekend volatility is often discounted due to thinner liquidity. Still, the broader concern among investors is persistent: Why hasn’t Bitcoin pushed past its previous all-time high near $112,000, especially given bullish tailwinds like:
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.
- Rising public company adoption
- Continued institutional accumulation
Data Points to Long-Term Holder Selling, Not Manipulation
On-chain analysis from Checkmate, a lead analyst at Glassnode, helps answer the question. Using the revived supply metric by coin age, Checkmate shows elevated selling from holders who acquired Bitcoin 3 to 10+ years ago.
“Look at all this price suppression selling by market manipulators who acquired their coins more than 3 years ago and are definitely not selling for profit in a bull market… Much paper,”
— Checkmate, sarcastically addressing suppression claims
In other words, this isn’t market manipulation — it’s a normal bull cycle behavior. As prices rise, long-term holders (LTHs) are incentivized to take profits.
Bitcoin Market Consolidation
| Metric | Value | Source |
| BTC Current Price | $107,546.73 | CoinDesk |
| Last dip below $100K | June 22, 2025 (weekend low-volume) | CoinDesk |
| LTH Selling Activity | Elevated (3–10+ year holdings revived) | Glassnode |
| New All-Time High (ATH) Target | $112,000 | Historical market peak |
Checkmate: “Suppression Equals Boredom”
Checkmate continued:
“Always chopping sideways. Suppression == Boredom.”
This points to a broader trend of price fatigue among market participants. As Bitcoin chops within a tight range, it gives rise to conspiracy theories of manipulation. But the supply-side mechanics offer a clearer explanation: older coins are entering the market at higher prices.
This profit-taking naturally slows momentum and prevents a breakout — not because of active suppression, but because of market structure dynamics.
Market Outlook: Patience Is a Position
While headlines might suggest artificial price suppression, the data tells a different story:
- Sellers are acting rationally, capitalizing on years of unrealized gains.
- The market is undergoing distribution, not manipulation.
- Until LTH selling subsides or new inflows outpace it, upside resistance will remain.
For investors, the takeaway is clear: this sideways action may persist, but it is a natural phase in a healthy bull cycle, not a red flag.
