Bitcoin Falls Below $104K as Retail Sentiment Reaches Post-Tariff Lows

TL;DR

• Bitcoin dropped below $104,000 amid retail investor pessimism and macroeconomic pressures.
  
• Santiment reports sentiment among retail investors is now as bearish as during the April “Liberation Day” tariffs.
  
• Technical analysis shows a V-shaped rebound near the $103,500 support level after a sharp mid-day selloff.
  
• Despite the volatility, BTC remains range-bound between $100K and $110K, with continued whale accumulation.
  
• The Federal Reserve’s rate pause and a drop in Binance open interest point to ongoing deleveraging.
  

Retail Sentiment Hits Post-Tariff Lows

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp 4% intraday selloff, dipping to $102,411 before rebounding to hover near $103,882, as per CoinDesk’s real-time pricing. Market sentiment among retail traders has turned markedly negative, according to data shared by crypto analytics firm Santiment. The firm’s sentiment ratio dropped to 1.03:1 — the lowest since April, when the U.S. administration under Donald Trump imposed “Liberation Day” tariffs, triggering widespread market fear.

Santiment noted that the current level of retail bearishness could present a contrarian buy signal. Similar sentiment levels in April preceded a Bitcoin rally, as large holders reportedly took advantage of retail capitulation to accumulate at discounted prices.

BTC Market Sentiment & Price Movement

Federal Reserve’s Influence on Price Consolidation

A major factor shaping Bitcoin’s price action this month has been the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady. This policy stance, while avoiding new hikes, has also removed immediate catalysts for risk asset upside.

The result is a tight trading range, with BTC unable to decisively break above $110,000 or below $100,000. This indecision is amplified by geopolitical uncertainty, particularly concerning the long-term effects of recent U.S. tariffs and global trade instability.

Deleveraging Continues on Derivatives Platforms

Open interest across Binance and other futures markets has continued to fall, a signal of ongoing deleveraging. Traders appear hesitant to maintain high-risk leveraged positions, which reduces speculative pressure but also limits upside volatility.

Concurrently, on-chain activity suggests accumulation by whales. Data from Glassnode shows continued wallet growth among addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC — typically long-term holders and institutions.

Technical Breakdown: Support, Resistance, and Momentum

Over a 24-hour stretch, BTC/USD fluctuated between $106,552 and $102,411 — a 3.89% swing. The sharpest decline occurred between 14:00 and 17:00 UTC, with above-average volume triggering a breakdown below $104,000.

However, buyers emerged near $103,400, forming support between $103,000–$103,500. A V-shaped rebound followed, pushing the price back to $103,618 before stabilizing just under $104K.

Short-term momentum indicators — including RSI and MACD — showed signs of recovery, though limited follow-through suggests the market remains cautious.

Market Still Range-Bound as Accumulation Builds

While the short-term price action has been volatile, Bitcoin remains within a well-defined range. The $100,000–$110,000 corridor has held firm for over a month, with multiple failed attempts to breach either boundary.

Whales appear to be taking advantage of consolidation to accumulate, a behavior consistent with historic patterns preceding significant rallies. However, without a clear macroeconomic shift or breakout catalyst, analysts suggest BTC may remain in this zone until Q3 2025.

Conclusion: Volatility Signals Caution, But Undercurrents Favor Bulls

Bitcoin’s slip below $104,000 is a reminder of the asset’s inherent volatility. However, unusually negative retail sentiment — combined with whale accumulation and consistent support at $103,500 — may set the stage for a rebound.

Investors and traders alike are watching for macro triggers, including monetary policy shifts or regulatory news, that could drive the next decisive move. Until then, the market remains range-bound but structurally supported.