Spot Crypto ETFs for XRP, SOL, DOGE Likely to Get SEC Approval: Bloomberg

TL;DR

• Bloomberg Intelligence analysts raise the approval odds of major spot crypto ETFs to over 90%.
  
• ETFs for XRP, Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Litecoin, and Cardano are all expected to receive SEC approval.
  
• Only the SUI ETF, filed by Canary, faces lower odds due to regulatory ambiguity.
  
• Analysts point to increased SEC engagement as a strong indicator of regulatory alignment.
  

SEC Engagement Boosts Crypto ETF Optimism

Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have significantly increased the approval odds for most pending spot crypto ETFs, including those for XRP, SOL, DOGE, and LTC. According to their projections, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is now more likely than not to approve these filings, citing clear indications of regulatory cooperation.

“We are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher,” Seyffart wrote in a recent X post. “Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign.”

These estimates follow a surge in 19b-4 acknowledgements and S-1 form amendment requests—a formal communication process between the SEC and ETF issuers. Bloomberg analysts interpret this as a sign of increased regulatory alignment.

ETF Approval Odds by Asset (Bloomberg + Polymarket)

XRP, SOL, and DOGE at the Forefront

Among the most closely watched filings are those for XRP, Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE). According to the Bloomberg team, the probability of approval for these ETFs has surpassed the 90% threshold, reflecting stronger confidence in both market maturity and SEC engagement.

On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, traders have assigned a 98% chance for the XRP ETF and 91% for the SOL ETF to be approved in 2025. DOGE trails slightly but still holds a 71% likelihood, according to betting market trends.

Only SUI ETF Faces Meaningful Doubt

Despite the optimism for most filings, the SUI ETF, proposed solely by Canary, faces a lower approval probability. Bloomberg assigns only 60% odds, citing a lack of regulated futures markets and regulatory uncertainty surrounding the asset.

Without an established futures contract and limited SEC precedent, SUI’s classification as a security vs. commodity remains unresolved. This ambiguity significantly impacts its likelihood of approval compared to peers like XRP and SOL, which have more defined regulatory histories.

A Wave of 19b-4 and S-1 Activity

The analysts’ revised projections are rooted in the recent uptick in 19b-4 filings—the rule change proposals required for ETF listing—as well as S-1 amendments, which pertain to disclosure and registration. The SEC’s willingness to correspond on these filings indicates a greater willingness to collaborate, according to Bloomberg.

This level of engagement is a sharp contrast to the SEC’s historical reluctance around spot crypto ETFs. In fact, the shift comes after years of court battles and public criticism over the agency’s inconsistent stance toward crypto asset classifications.

Betting Markets Align With Analysts

The sentiment shift extends beyond traditional finance. Traders on Polymarket are now overwhelmingly betting that multiple ETFs will gain approval this year. These markets serve as an informal gauge of public and institutional expectations.

For example, the odds of a spot XRP ETF being approved in 2025 currently stand at 98%, while the SOL ETF carries 91% odds. These projections are based on real-time financial commitments by traders and closely mirror Bloomberg’s institutional view.

SEC’s Strategic Shift: Why It Matters

If Bloomberg’s predictions materialize, the SEC’s shift will mark a watershed moment in U.S. crypto regulation. Approval of multiple spot ETFs will not only increase market legitimacy but also:

• Broaden institutional exposure to altcoins beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
  
• Strengthen price discovery mechanisms for emerging digital assets.
  
• Accelerate crypto adoption within traditional retirement and asset portfolios.
  
• Increase regulatory clarity, setting new standards for future ETF proposals.
  

Such developments could propel the crypto market toward maturity, especially as U.S.-based asset managers seek access to compliant, regulated crypto products.

Conclusion: Regulatory Winds Favor Multi-Asset Spot ETFs

The growing alignment between ETF issuers and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission signals a potential breakthrough year for altcoin-based ETFs. With Bloomberg forecasting 90%+ odds for major crypto ETFs and Polymarket betting markets confirming this optimism, industry players and investors alike are preparing for a wave of ETF approvals in 2025.If the trends hold, the arrival of XRP, SOL, DOGE, and ADA ETFs will significantly reshape the crypto investment landscape and usher in a new chapter of regulated market participation.