TL;DR
- Bitcoin traded flat near $105,650 despite a strong rally in Asian equities led by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, which crossed 24,000.
- XRP and Dogecoin showed limited momentum; network activity on Bitcoin dropped to its lowest in a year.
- Optimism about U.S.-China trade talks lifted stock markets, but crypto markets remain cautious.
- Concerns over China’s deepening deflation could prompt further stimulus, possibly benefiting risk assets.
- U.S. CPI data due Wednesday is expected to reflect the early impact of Trump’s tariffs and could influence Federal Reserve policy.
Bitcoin Holds Flat Despite Asian Equity Optimism
While optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations boosted Asian equities on Monday, major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP failed to mirror the positive sentiment.
The Hang Seng Index rose 1.3%, surpassing the 24,000 mark for the first time since March, driven by upbeat expectations about trade diplomacy. Yet, Bitcoin traded near $105,650, posting minimal movement after printing a doji candle — a traditional signal of market indecision — on Sunday, according to TradingView.
The muted crypto price action underlines a growing divergence between traditional markets and digital assets amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Cryptocurrency Price Snapshot
| Asset | Price (USD) | Daily Change | Market Sentiment |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $105,650 | Flat | Indecisive (Doji candle) |
| XRP | $2.24 | ▼ 1% | Weak upside traction |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.19 | ▼ 2% | Below 100-day SMA |
Bitcoin Network Activity Weakens
One of the more troubling indicators for Bitcoin was the ongoing decline in network activity. Data from Blockchain.com shows that the seven-day moving average of daily on-chain transactions fell to 315,480, marking the lowest level in at least a year.
This slump in transactions may indicate waning retail or institutional engagement, a red flag for short-term price momentum.
XRP and Dogecoin Also Struggle
XRP, the payments-focused token, failed to maintain momentum despite briefly topping a key bearish trendline formed in mid-May. At press time, XRP traded at $2.24, down over 1% on the day.
Traders are watching closely as the XRP Ledger’s APEX 2025 conference unfolds in Singapore this week, an event that could drive volatility or renewed interest, depending on project announcements or ecosystem developments.
Meanwhile, Dogecoin (DOGE) dropped nearly 2%, hovering around $0.185, after failing to reclaim the 100-day simple moving average over the weekend.
Hang Seng Surges on Trade Hopes
The Hang Seng Index’s climb above 24,000 came as top U.S. and Chinese trade representatives prepared for meetings in London. According to ForexLive chief analyst Adam Button, optimism surrounding these talks is the highest it’s been since Donald Trump’s initial election.
“There are indications that talks will go all week, and Trump himself is optimistic,” said Button.
Trump echoed this sentiment on Truth Social, saying:
“The meeting should go very well.”
Other regional indexes like South Korea’s KOSPI and China’s Shanghai Composite also gained, despite continued evidence of deflationary pressure within China’s economy.
China’s Deflation Worsens, Stimulus Eyed
Fresh data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics released Monday shows a troubling trend:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): ▼ 0.1% YoY
- Producer Price Index (PPI): ▼ 3.3% YoY
The PPI decline exceeded the consensus forecast of -3.2%, marking a prolonged deflationary period that began in October 2022.
According to Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution, U.S. tariffs are acting as a deflationary shock, pushing China toward deeper economic stagnation.
“All necessary conditions for deflation are there: weak consumption and a debt overhang. U.S. tariffs are now the catalyst,” said Brooks on X.
In response, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut benchmark interest rates by 10 basis points in May and reduced the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to inject liquidity. Reports from China Securities Journal suggest another RRR cut could arrive later this year.
If implemented, these stimulus measures may provide tailwinds for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
U.S. CPI in Focus This Week
Investors now turn their attention to U.S. inflation data, set for release on Wednesday. Analysts expect:
- Headline CPI (MoM): +0.2% (same as April)
- Headline CPI (YoY): 2.5% (up from 2.3%)
- Core CPI (YoY): 2.9% (up from 2.8%)
Economists at Barclays anticipate signs of tariff-induced price increases, particularly in core goods, due to the latest trade tensions.
A stronger-than-expected print could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, increasing volatility in both traditional and digital markets.
Looking Ahead: Mixed Signals for Crypto Markets
While traditional markets are cheering diplomatic optimism and potential Chinese stimulus, Bitcoin and altcoins remain range-bound, reflecting hesitation around U.S. monetary policy and macro demand for digital assets.
Still, catalysts like the XRP APEX 2025 event, Chinese stimulus, and inflation data could break the current market indecision. For now, the digital asset space continues to await clearer direction from both policy and price action.
