Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Signal Patience Despite Recent Selling

TL;DR

•  45% of Bitcoin’s supply hasn’t moved in 3+ years, same as in Feb 2024
  
•  30% of supply hasn’t moved in 5+ years, stable since May 2024
  
•  Despite some long-term holder (LTH) selling, the overall LTH supply is largely unchanged
  
•  This indicates that most LTHs are waiting for higher prices, signaling market confidence
  
•  Data from Glassnode and CoinDesk Research supports this trend
  

Glassnode Data Highlights Holder Conviction

Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs), defined as those holding BTC for at least 155 days, are showing stubborn patience in the current market, according to new data from Glassnode and CoinDesk Research. Despite recent sell pressure, approximately 45% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply has not moved in three years or more—unchanged since February 2024, one month after U.S. Bitcoin ETFs were launched.

This supply includes coins untouched since the $20,000 trading levels of July 2022, when the market faced a leverage crisis triggered by the collapse of 3AC and Celsius.

Five-Year Inactivity Also Stands Firm

The share of Bitcoin’s circulating supply that hasn’t moved in at least five years currently stands at 30%, a level that has remained unchanged since May 2024. This signals a deep level of conviction among early adopters and ultra-long-term holders—even as Bitcoin continues to trade above $100,000.

Although some selling by LTHs has occurred, this is expected behavior during bull markets. What’s notable is the overall flatness in long-term supply, suggesting no mass liquidation or panic exit.

Long-Term Holder Activity

Historical Context: Selling Behavior is Normal

Data shows that LTHs routinely sell when Bitcoin experiences extended bullish trends, especially once the price surpasses previous cycle highs. This behavior is not new—and typically occurs in measured waves.

The absence of a significant drop in the 3- or 5-year inactive supply, however, tells a different story: a majority of LTHs are holding out for more.

The ETF Effect and Future Targets

February 2024 marked a key turning point with the U.S. approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Yet, the long-term supply figures have remained unchanged since then, even as prices climbed past $100,000.

This strengthens the argument that many early holders expect prices to rise even higher, possibly in line with predictions from institutions like Fidelity or ARK Invest, which have issued targets exceeding $150,000–$200,000 over the next two years.

Market Confidence Remains Strong

Despite heightened volatility and occasional drawdowns, HODLers appear unfazed. Their behavior suggests a continued belief in Bitcoin’s long-term price potential, helping set a strong psychological floor for the market.

Unless these levels of supply begin to noticeably drop, the Bitcoin market may be more resilient than short-term traders realize.